2026 Shirley By-Election Reflections

On 26th February 2026, a handful of by-elections took place across the country.  The one that drew the most national attention was the Gorton and Denton parliamentary contest, and as a progressive woman, I was genuinely delighted to see elected a clearly progressive and openly trans-supportive woman, and, I was equally glad to see LibDem voters in the area do the smart thing and vote to keep Reform UK from gaining another MP.

Closer to home, and with less fanfare, was a LibDem contest in Shirley Ward of Southampton City Council.  Won by George Percival in a by-election triggered by the council resignation of Satvir Kaur MP, Chris Shank took up the mantle of defending the ward after George resigned for personal reasons.  This is the election I am focusing this reflection on and, in doing so, perhaps cutting through some of the noise that tends to surround high-profile by-elections.

In electoral politics, we love a military metaphor.  We talk about “campaigns”, about “holding territory”, about “boots on the ground” and “battleground seats”. We speak proudly of “armies of volunteers” who must be “mobilised” at short notice. The metaphors are overused, but they stick around because they are easy to understand.  Elections, like military campaigns, are won or lost on people.  If you don’t have enough enthusiastic, willing, and energetic volunteers, then persuading an electorate becomes very difficult indeed.

The result at just past midnight was that we’d held the ward, but truthfully, the margin was far too close for comfort.  It was not the steam-to-victory we had hoped for – it was a win that so easily could have been a loss.  In Shirley, even though we had the data, and a strategy, and we’d done our best, we genuinely thought that Labour, who had thrown the Kitchen Sink at the campaign, might be able to reclaim the seat.

The short campaign was an uphill and morale sapping struggle.  I don’t know how much of our literature went undelivered.  I don’t know how many conversations we didn’t have because there simply weren’t enough of us to knock the doors.  Compared with other Southampton contests I’ve been involved in, volunteer numbers felt noticeably thinner.

Pointing fingers is often unhelpful. But sometimes reflection requires honesty.

In the last week since polling day, I have asked myself repeatedly why I didn’t give more of my time to campaigning in the months after Chris was selected, even before the by-election was called.  The answer, uncomfortable as it is to write, is simple:

I didn’t want to.

For me, this admission was a difficult one, as I care deeply about the Party and the hundreds of dedicated individuals within our Party who are determined to make the UK a better place.  My reluctance to participate was nothing to do with them and is in fact down to a more institutional problem.

Right now, I do not feel that the Liberal Democrats are the same progressive, capital-L Liberal, Pro-immigrant, Pro-minority and pro-LGBT+ Party that I joined in 2019.

I worry that we have conceded rhetorical ground to the far right by normalising conversations that dehumanise vulnerable groups. We sometimes speak about migrants, about trans people, about minorities, in tones that feel defensive rather than principled.  We love to repeatedly call Nigel Farage out for trying to import American Trumpism to the UK, and rightly so, but always miss the fact that the minority which he has railed against and attacked the most is trans people.  Rather than wrestling the Overton Window back to its rightful place, we have just moved with it.  If we are the party of liberty, we cannot be tentative about whose liberty we defend – and we must be properly challenging any mainstream voices who seek to dehumanise and marginalise.

If there is anyone in the mainstream of politics who has consistently done this, it is the Green Party leader, Zack Polanski.  Since the Supreme Court FWS decision, he has been the only person to resolutely say that he believes trans women are women – a phrase I understand is now being strongly avoided in HQ messaging.  Any chance we had to energise a new generation of campaigners vanished when Polanski took over.  At the time of writing, they’ve got over 216,000 members – 216000 potential activists, deliverers and candidates.  I know a lot of people who were thoroughly sick of the way things are going and wanted to get involved with campaigning.  These people could have been new LibDem members.

Our activists deliver the leaflets. Our activists knock the doors. Our activists fundraise, organise, and stand in unwinnable seats – because someone has to.

But, if we fail to inspire new members – particularly younger members – then the maths becomes unforgiving. Membership ages.  Fewer people can give up cold evenings and long weekends.  Winnable seats become knife-edge contests.  Comfortable holds become anxious defences.  In this respect, Shirley needs to be treated warning siren for the uphill campaigning struggle we will very likely find ourselves in come the next General Election.

I’m sick of the silence.  I’m sick of the way the Party has begun to tend towards dull managerialism.  I’m sick of the wanton disregard for the members-led way we make policy in this Party. 

If we don’t ensure that being a member of the Liberal Democrats is going to achieve something beyond just ousting the Tories, we need to give our members a reason to show up and a reason to ask our friends to join.  Right now, I wouldn’t dream of doing that.

The Liberal Democrats need to stand for something again and be worth believing in, and unless that happens, every election will be like Shirley.